The Met Office has revised its forecast for this summer – no heatwaves (apart from the one in June when no-one expected it and the kids were still at school), just rainy days ahead.   Apparently it stressed back in April that the odds of a scorching summer were 65% – so not guaranteed.  However the press picked up on this as a really high percentage which obviously guaranteed a heatwave.  I must say that 65% doesn’t sound “guaranteed” to me.

How much should we believe the Met Office – short term tends to be right.  But should we be surprised?  Summers in the UK tend to be damp with the occasional hot day when everyone runs around moaning that its too hot. 

There are various business sectors who rely on these long term forecasts – farmers, ice-cream manufacturers, supermarkets, stores selling garden toys and barbeques are just a few that spring to mind.  Travel is another one – if the forecast is good for the UK, people tend to stay at home.  If its bad – everyone wants to get away to the sun.  Telling us at the end of July is a little late – manufacturing runs have been set, goods ordered, charter flights fully booked (or cancelled due to lack of demand). 


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